Willis Towers Watson is one of the world's largest consulting firms, and has recently developed a new technology that accurately predicts human deaths.
The new technology is called “PulseModel†and Willis Towers Watson developed the technology for a very specific reason – providing insurance companies with predictive tools that allow them to more accurately predict the life of the insured for more accurate calculations. Premium.
Willis Towers Watson said in an e-mailed statement that "PulseModel" is the first mortality model to adopt medical knowledge and promote its application in terms of death prediction.
“For a while, we noticed that the currently used mortality model does not properly reflect medical information – such as whether an individual is healthy or has some medical history.†Matthew Edwards, head of Willis Towers Watson Edwards) said in a statement.
When you apply for life insurance or health insurance, you only need to complete a simple questionnaire about your physical condition, past medical history and lifestyle – such as whether you exercise, smoke or drink, and then smoke. People need to pay more premiums, whether you smoke 5 cigarettes or 20 cigarettes a day.
However, PulseModel can make a more predictive analysis of policyholders. For example, if an insured person has type 2 diabetes, PulseModel can predict the life of the insured.
Willis Towers Watson said the technology "is designed to help insurers and pension funds accurately price insurance services, better manage risk... and also help people who buy annuity insurance get a fairer deal."
For example, in the case of diabetic patients in the UK, Willis Towers Watson provides us with an example of accurate death prediction:
Of the 50-year-old healthy men, 16% will develop type 2 diabetes within 20 years.
If the selected subject becomes a 50-year-old obese smoker, the rate of developing type 2 diabetes will rise to 23% within 20 years.
According to the PulseModel model, in the 50 to 70 age group, non-smoking diabetics usually live less than non-diabetic patients for about 6 years, while obese smokers with diabetes usually live 4 years less than non-smoking diabetics.
In addition, among 50-year-old men, obese smokers with diabetes have twice the mortality rate of healthy people.
Edwards stressed that a more accurate death prediction means that insurance companies or pension companies will no longer need to over-price products to guard against potential risks.
"With regard to our research and the development of this new model, one thing is clear. We can no longer rely on an extrapolation model that ignores medical ideas to predict human life," he added.
“That approach may result in separation from medical and biological perspectives, making people pay more for insurance and pension services.â€
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